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Cal-Maine CEO Sherman Miller said industry figures point to a possible rebalancing of U.S. egg supply and demand, including a smaller-than-expected layer flock and fewer chicks hatched from breeder eggs. He cautioned that the indicators do not establish that the market has turned, and the company cannot say when the oversupply weighing on wholesale prices will end.
Cal-Maine Foods sees early signs that U.S. egg supply and demand are rebalancing, CEO Sherman Miller told investors on a Sept. 30 earnings call, pointing to a smaller layer-hen flock and fewer chicks hatched from breeder eggs. Miller cautioned that the figures do not confirm a market turn, and the company cannot predict when the current oversupply will end.
Miller cited industry figures showing the U.S. layer flock was estimated at 336 million to 343 million hens, about 4 million below earlier estimates. The American Egg Board’s September report also showed breeder-egg hatch numbers were down 12% year to date. Estimated monthly egg-case production over the prior three months edged down to 19.9 million, compared with the previous report.
Cal-Maine said the supply imbalance has weighed on its business. In the first quarter of fiscal 2027, the company’s conventional shell egg sales fell 59.5% year over year to $201.7 million. That result came amid an oversupply that has depressed wholesale prices. Miller also cited higher demand as one of the signs to watch, saying retail egg volume rose about 4% from January through August compared with the same period a year earlier, based on data from market-measurement firm NielsenIQ.
For the four weeks through Aug. 29, sales were slightly higher while the average price per dozen fell about 27%, Miller said. The figures offer evidence of stronger purchasing at lower prices, but do not establish that demand alone will absorb excess supply. Cal-Maine’s remarks point to indicators moving in a potentially supportive direction, not a confirmed return to prior price levels or profitability.
Lower Prices Meet Supply Cuts
The supply shift matters to grocery shoppers, food businesses and egg producers because excess production has pushed wholesale prices down after a period of shortages and high prices. A continued reduction in flock size and production could help bring supply closer to demand, while lower retail prices may encourage more purchases. The available figures do not show how quickly that balance could change or what prices consumers and producers will see next.
For Cal-Maine, the reported decline in conventional shell egg sales illustrates the financial stakes of a glut. A market rebalancing could ease pressure if it leads to better alignment between production and orders, but the company has not forecast a timeline or quantified a potential recovery. Miller’s warning is consequential: the indicators suggest direction, not a settled outcome.
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From Shortage to Oversupply
The present glut follows a sharp reversal from conditions a year earlier. An avian influenza outbreak killed more than 145 million U.S. birds, according to the source report, contributing to egg shortages and soaring prices. The market later moved into oversupply as flock numbers remained elevated and hens were productive.
The American Egg Board, an industry-funded organization, attributed the surplus to elevated flock numbers, strong hen productivity and exports that were insufficient to absorb the additional production. Its September estimates, cited by Miller, suggest that some supply measures have since begun to ease. Those figures are industry estimates and do not, on their own, establish how much excess supply remains across the market.
“These indicators do not establish that the market will turn, but they provide important context on the potential direction of supply.”
— Sherman Miller, Cal-Maine Foods president and CEO
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Timing of a Market Turn
The end date for the glut remains unknown. Cal-Maine did not predict when wholesale prices would stop being depressed, and the supply indicators cited by Miller do not confirm that a sustained recovery has begun. The reported flock, hatch and production figures are estimates or comparisons covering specific periods; they do not quantify the remaining surplus or its expected duration.
It is also unclear whether the recent demand readings will continue through the fall and holiday season, or how changes in production and exports will affect prices. The source report does not provide a forecast for future egg prices, Cal-Maine earnings or the pace at which supply could return to balance.
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Signals to Watch This Fall
Investors and buyers will be watching for subsequent flock and production estimates, hatch data, wholesale prices and retail sales to see whether the reported easing continues. Cal-Maine has pointed to the fall baking and holiday periods as a seasonally stronger time for consumption, while Miller said affordability and promotions could support demand.
The next evidence will need to show whether lower production and continued purchasing narrow the gap between supply and demand. Until then, Cal-Maine’s assessment remains that the market may be rebalancing, with no confirmed timeline for the oversupply to end.
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Key Questions
What does Cal-Maine mean by egg supply rebalancing?
The company is referring to signs that supply growth may be easing relative to demand, including a smaller estimated layer flock, fewer breeder-egg hatchings and a slight decline in monthly case production. Cal-Maine said these indicators do not confirm that the market has turned.
When does Cal-Maine expect the egg glut to end?
Cal-Maine CEO Sherman Miller said the company cannot predict when the oversupply depressing wholesale prices will end. The company has not provided a recovery date.
What happened to Cal-Maine’s conventional egg sales?
In the first quarter of fiscal 2027, conventional shell egg sales fell 59.5% year over year to $201.7 million, according to the company’s reported results.
Are egg prices already rising?
The source report describes depressed wholesale prices and says the average retail price per dozen fell about 27% in the four weeks through Aug. 29, alongside slightly higher sales. It does not report that prices have begun rising.
What signs could show whether the market is improving?
Future flock and production estimates, breeder-egg hatch numbers, retail demand, exports and wholesale prices can help show whether supply and demand are moving closer together. The figures cited by Cal-Maine are early indicators, not confirmation of a sustained recovery.
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